North America HVAC System Market Size & Growth Drivers by 2031

The North America HVAC system market size is projected to reach US$ 63.40 billion by 2031 from US$ 41.08 billion in 2024. The market is expected to register a CAGR of 6.49% during 2025–2031. 

North America HVAC System Market Analysis

Elevating the demand for electric power is the operation of data centers and the use of EVs. At the same time, the aged building infrastructure and government energy efficiency mandates complete the list of reasons that are responsible for the market growth in North America. Promoting product innovation in heat pumps and VRF systems seems to be the response of manufacturers to the simultaneously growing commercial and residential sectors. Studies direct attention toward the use of less harmful refrigerants, smart controls, and modular designs, while highlighting the electrification and smart building integration as future possibilities.

North America HVAC System Market Overview

Heating, ventilation, air conditioning, and refrigeration (HVAC) systems provide the necessary comfort and air quality in indoor places of residential, commercial, and industrial areas. Besides being energy efficient, climate control and improved indoor air quality are among the features of the systems that are leading to compliance with building codes in different climatic zones. The main advantages are lowered energy consumption, improved occupant health, and the possibility of integration with renewables such as heat pumps.

North America HVAC System Market: Strategic Insights

North America HVAC System Market Drivers and Opportunities

Market Drivers:

• Rising Electricity Demand: Countries such as the US, Canada, Mexico, and Brazil are showing an increased per‑capita electricity usage. Rising electricity demand from data centers, EVs, and urbanization increases the need for efficient cooling. The US leads with stringent DOE efficiency standards implemented in 2024.
• Aging HVAC System Upgradation: Upgrading aging HVAC in commercial buildings to prevent failures and cut energy costs amid variable weather is driving market growth.
• Strengthening Environmental Regulations Fostering Market Development: Governments in North America are placing strong emphasis on reducing carbon footprints through improved HVAC efficiency and the integration of HVAC systems in commercial and industrial uses.

Market Opportunities:

• Demand for smart HVAC with AI scheduling and connectivity: Smart HVAC systems employ AI for predictive scheduling, thereby energy optimization is done via real-time data and IoT connectivity for remote control, which is the main reason for the reduction of the cost by 20- 30% in commercial buildings.
• EV and electrification surge requires advanced heat pumps: Growing EV adoption and grid electrification lead to the demand for efficient heat pumps, which can provide dual heating/cooling with 300% efficiency and are supported by US incentives such as IRA tax credits.
• Residential electrification and smart homes expansion: Electrification is a process whereby gas furnaces are replaced by heat pumps in residential buildings, which are then integrated with smart thermostats for automation, and the process is powered by rebates and a 15% growth in smart home sales per year.

North America HVAC System Market Report Segmentation Analysis

The North America HVAC System Market is divided into different segments to give a clearer view of how it works, its growth potential, and the latest trends. Below is the standard segmentation approach used in most industry reports:

By Type:

• Split System: Split systems are the major players in residential markets, allowing energy-efficient cooling/heating through indoor/outdoor units without the use of ducts, which are ideal for zoned control in homes with increasing SEER standards.
• Ductless System: Ductless mini-splits are the leader with a 40% share, a perfect solution for retrofitting in old houses where there are no ducts, thus allowing flexible zoning and energy savings of up to 30% according to DOE data.
• Packaged System: Packaged units have all components integrated in one cabinet for rooftops; thus, they are ideal for commercial spaces with limited space, and the primary factor for their use is the fast installation in new builds.

By Implementation:

• New Installation: The number of new installations is on the rise, together with the construction of the US commercial/residential sectors. These installations are characterized by the use of smart, high-efficiency systems in order to meet DOE codes and green certifications.
• Retrofit: Retrofits are the solution for aging infrastructure; thus, they replace inefficient units with ductless/heat pumps, a process that is supported by rebates and 15- 20% energy savings in urban renovations.

By Application:

• Residential
• Commercial
• Industrial

By Component:

• Thermostat
• Air Handling Units
• Central AC
• Furnace
• Heat Pump
• Compressor
• Others

By Geography:

• North America
• Europe
• Asia Pacific
• Latin America
• Middle East & Africa

North America is expected to witness the fastest market growth driven by rapid urbanization, digitalization, and soaring demand for HVAC systems.

North America HVAC System Market Players Density: Understanding Its Impact on Business Dynamics

The North America HVAC System Market is growing rapidly, driven by increasing end-user demand due to factors such as evolving consumer preferences, technological advancements, and greater awareness of the product's benefits. As demand rises, businesses are expanding their offerings, innovating to meet consumer needs, and capitalizing on emerging trends, which further fuels market growth.

North America HVAC System Market Share Analysis by Geography

The market in the US is expected to grow the fastest in the next few years. The North America HVAC System Market grows differently in each region owing to digital technology, government rules, expanding grid industry, and businesses' focus on sustainability. Below is a summary of market share and trends by region:

1. North America

• The US Market Share: Holds a significant portion of the North America market
• Key Drivers:
  • Infrastructure upgrade
  • Rising renewable energy integration demand
  • Efficiency Mandates
• Trends: Technological advancements in HVAC systems

North America HVAC System Market Players Density: Understanding Its Impact on Business Dynamics

High Market Density and Competition

Competition remains intense with established leaders like Carrier Global Corporation, Trane Technologies plc, and Daikin Industries, Ltd. Regional players such as Lennox International Inc. and Johnson Controls add pressure across segments.

This high level of competition urges companies to stand out by offering:

• High-efficiency heat pumps and VRF systems with SEER 25+ ratings.
• Customized IoT-enabled solutions for data centers, renewables, and smart buildings.
• Cost-competitive manufacturing with low-GWP refrigerants.
• Robust after-sales via predictive analytics and remote diagnostics.

Opportunities and Strategic Moves

• Utilities and building owners have coupled with IoT providers to keep a tab on the side of improving efficiency and maintenance in commercial retrofits and data centers.
• Manufacturers propel smart HVAC further by embedding AI controls, low-GWP tech, and cloud platforms for real-time optimization.
• Small, modular VRF/ductless concepts are becoming more popular; thus, they are enabling the easy transition of the old buildings to new ones without the need for a complete overhaul.

Major Companies operating in the North America HVAC System Market are:

1. Daikin Industries Ltd
2. Johnson Controls International Plc
3. Carrier Global Corp
4. Honeywell International Inc
5. Mitsubishi Electric Corp
6. Robert Bosch GmbH
7. Systemair AB
8. LG Electronics Inc
9. Emerson Electric Co
10. Hitachi Ltd
11. Trane Technologies Plc

Disclaimer: The companies listed above are not ranked in any particular order.

Other companies analyzed during the course of research:

1. Ingersoll Rand Plc
2. Nortek Air Solutions
3. GE Appliances, a Haier company
4. Electrolux AB
5. Syntec Airflow Systems
6. Others

North America HVAC System Market News and Recent Developments

• Carrier Global Corporation Announces Investment Plans of US$ 1 billion in the US - In May 2025, Carrier Global Corporation, a global leader in intelligent climate and energy solutions, announced plans to invest an additional US$1 billion over five years in US manufacturing, innovation, and workforce expansion, incremental to its ongoing commitments to American operations. The investment is expected to create 4,000 highly skilled jobs in R&D, manufacturing, and field service.
• Daikin Applied broke ground for the construction of a new energy-efficient manufacturing facility in Mexico. - In June 2024, Alliance Air, a subsidiary of Daikin Applied, a leading global commercial and industrial HVAC manufacturer, broke ground for the construction of a new energy-efficient manufacturing facility in Tijuana, Mexico, to support sustainable data center growth across North America. This expanded facility allows the company to better serve customers with a single supplier for end-to-end HVAC solutions. The expansion builds on the legacy of Alliance Air in Tijuana, which is celebrating 20 years in the community and is now partnered with the 100-year legacy of industry leader Daikin Industries.

North America HVAC System Market Report Coverage and Deliverables

The "North America HVAC System Market Size and Forecast (2021–2031)" report provides a detailed analysis of the market covering below areas:

• North America HVAC System Market size and forecast at global, regional, and country levels for all the segments covered under the scope
• North America HVAC System Market trends, as well as dynamics such as drivers, restraints, and key opportunities
• Detailed PEST and SWOT analysis
• North America HVAC System Market analysis covering key trends, global and regional framework, major players, regulations, and recent developments
• Industry landscape and competition analysis covering market concentration, heat map analysis, prominent players, and recent developments for the North America HVAC System Market
• Detailed company profiles