Commercial HVAC Market is expected to reach US$ 136.44 Billion by 2031

Rise in Construction Projects Worldwide to Fuel Commercial HVAC Market Growth During Forecast Period 

According to our latest study, "Commercial HVAC Market Size and Forecast (2021–2031), Global and Regional Share, Trend, and Growth Opportunity Analysis – by Equipment Type, Implementation, Application, and Geography," the market was valued at US$ 79.30 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach US$ 136.44 billion by 2031; it is estimated to register a CAGR of 8.2% during 2025–2031. The report includes growth prospects owing to the current commercial HVAC market trends and their foreseeable impact during the forecast period.

Rapid urbanization is a major factor driving the increase in commercial buildings. As populations move to cities, the demand for new office buildings, shopping malls, and other commercial infrastructure grows. In addition, the surging investments in the development of smart city initiatives are expected to fuel the growth of the construction industry in the country. A few of the mega-construction projects are listed below:

• The Westwood Park Mixed-Use Development project in Fife is one of the largest shopping center and retail mall projects in Europe. With a project value of US$ 230 million, construction started in Q1 2022 and is estimated to be completed in Q3 2030.
• The construction of the Yaesu 1-Chome North District Type One Urban Redevelopment project, which involves the construction of two commercial buildings in Chuo-ku, Tokyo, Japan, started in Q4 2024 and is expected to be completed in Q4 2031. The project aims to provide better retail, office, and hospital facilities in the region.
• In Q4 2024, the construction of the Bendigo Prime Business Park project started. The project involves the construction of a business park on 2.23 ha of land in Bendigo, Victoria, Australia, and is expected to be completed in Q4 2027.
• Owing to the rise in tourism and the upcoming Olympics, several airport construction and terminal expansion activities are being undertaken in the US. The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey invested US$ 19 billion to build "A New JFK," a major transformation of one of the busiest airports in the US. The project has entered the construction phase and is scheduled for completion in 2026.

The growing number of high-end construction activities is expected to fuel the demand for HVAC systems, as these systems can be used in different environments for temperature control in various zones. In addition, modern HVAC systems focus on environmental regulations, lower emissions, health and safety, and energy efficiency, making them the most sustainable heating and cooling solutions. Thus, the growing construction projects worldwide are fueling the growth of the commercial HVAC market. 

Commercial HVAC Market Analysis — by Geography

Source: The Insight Partners Analysis

Schneider Electric SE, Carrier Global Corp, Daikin Industries Ltd, Honeywell International Inc, Johnson Controls International Plc, Danfoss AS, Lennox International Inc, LG Electronics Inc, Mitsubishi Electric Corp, Samsung Electronics Co Ltd, Trane Technologies Plc, and AAON Inc are among the key players profiled in the commercial HVAC market report. Several other major players were also studied and analyzed in the market study to get a holistic view of the market and its ecosystem.

The report includes the commercial HVAC market forecast by equipment type, implementation, application, and geography. Based on equipment type, the market is segmented into cooling equipment, heating equipment, and ventilation equipment. The cooling equipment segment is subsegmented into unitary air conditioners, chillers, coolers, VRF systems, and others. The heating equipment segment is further segmented into boilers, heat pumps, furnaces, and space heaters. The ventilation equipment segment is subsegmented into ventilation equipment type and ventilation systems type. The ventilation equipment type segment is further divided into air handling units (AHUs), ventilation fans, air filters and air purifiers, roof vents, and others. Also, the ventilation systems type segment is further divided into controlled mechanical ventilation (CMV), natural ventilation, and hybrid/mixed-mode ventilation. In terms of revenue, the cooling equipment segment held the largest commercial HVAC market share and is expected to register the highest CAGR during the forecast period.

The scope of the commercial HVAC market report focuses on North America (the US, Canada, and Mexico), Europe (Spain, the UK, Germany, France, Italy, and the Rest of Europe), Asia Pacific (South Korea, China, India, Japan, Australia, and the Rest of Asia Pacific), the Middle East & Africa (South Africa, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the Rest of Middle East & Africa), and South & Central America (Brazil, Argentina, and the Rest of South & Central America). North America dominated the market in 2023, followed by APAC and Europe.

The market in Asia Pacific is segmented into Australia, China, Japan, India, South Korea, and the Rest of APAC. In terms of revenue, China held the largest commercial HVAC market share in APAC. China is home to major manufacturers of advanced HVAC systems owing to strong industrialization in the country. The country's adoption of HVAC systems is higher for commercial segments owing to its large population base. For instance, in May 2023, Toshiba HVAC launched its new Digital Inverter (DI) series in Mainland China. This light commercial ductless split air-conditioning system is easy to install and provides a range of energy-efficient, intelligent offerings. Similarly, in July 2022, China's Midea and Taqeef launched the V8 series of smart cooling technology, which combines the key features of their developed VRF technologies with advanced enhancements that meet diverse requirements. Thus, the increasing deployment of advanced HVAC systems is expected to drive the commercial HVAC market growth in China.

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