可持续航空燃油市场(主要地区、市场参与者、规模和份额)-到 2031 年的预测

  • Report Code : TIPRE00026611
  • Category : Aerospace and Defense
  • No. of Pages : 200
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Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market Size and Forecasts (2021 - 2031), Global and Regional Share, Trends, and Growth Opportunity Analysis

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自 20 世纪 50 年代喷气式飞机时代开始以来,航空业一直在经历稳定而显着的增长。喷气航空业的利益相关者继续见证了对具有更大运载能力、更高速度和更长续航时间的新型飞机的需求的增加。飞机发动机和航空结构制造商在开发大型发动机和轻质材料以满足客户不断变化的需求方面发挥着至关重要的作用。另一方面,燃料生产商一直在开发不同类型的喷气燃料,包括 Jet A、Jet A1、航空汽油和生物燃料。利益相关者的这些努力使航空业成为一个强大的、价值数十亿美元的业务。

传统航空燃料释放大量二氧化碳。因此,近年来,航空业开始强调减少碳足迹,以遵守环保组织和政府当局制定的规范。根据国际航空运输协会 (IATA) 的数据,商业航空业每年排放的二氧化碳占全球二氧化碳排放量的 2% 至 3%。减少燃油摄入量并增强性能、开发电动飞机以及改进现有燃油发动机是降低飞机模型碳排放水平的关键策略。目前,多家航空公司、飞机发动机制造商和航空工业组织都在关注可再生航空燃料,即可持续航空燃料(SAF)。

根据来自航空公司、飞机制造商、飞机发动机制造商、航空业专家和燃料生产商的多个消息来源,SAF 预计将在短时间内在减少碳足迹方面提供无与伦比的经验。多家航空公司已在其机队中引入 SAF,并见证了飞行过程中碳排放量的大幅减少。下面提到了来自 IATA 的有关 SAF 的一些基本事实:

    自 2016 年以来,SAF 已在超过 37,000 架次航班中使用。 SAF 能够减少航班在整个生命周期内的碳排放量减少 80%。2021 年,SAF 生产商交付了约 1 亿升燃料。全球有超过 45 家航空公司拥有在当前情况下使用 SAF 运营其机队的经验截至 2021 年,生产商和航空公司已签署约 140 亿升 SAF 预购协议.存在七种技术途径致力于 100% 新加坡武装部队运营的航班的开发和可行性为了确保 SAF 的全面可行性,正在进行大量研究。

    根据国际民航组织 (ICAO) 的数据,可持续航空燃油市场目前正处于萌芽阶段,全球有 5,000 多家商业航空公司,其中只有 45 家有经验然而,随着碳排放水平监管的日益严格,预计未来几年,SAF 在其他航空公司中的采用将大幅增加。根据多方消息来源,可持续航空燃油市场预计将在未来十年,这一比例将超过 55%,因为电动飞机模型预计将在 2033 年之后投入使用。

    可持续航空燃料市场涵盖不同类型的燃料,包括生物燃料、氢燃料和电转液体燃料。其中,生物燃料的需求量最高,也是最重要的在目前的情况下生产了SAF。然而,根据多位行业专家的说法,电转液是最有前途的SAF类型,尽管如此,该类型还处于起步阶段。

    可持续航空燃料市场参与者采用各种方法生产这些燃料类型,包括加氢脂肪酸酯和游离脂肪酸 (HEFA-SPK);费托合成石蜡煤油 (FT-SPK);以及FT-SPK/A;发酵糖的加氢处理 – 合成异链烷烃煤油 (HFS-SIP);以及酒精喷射合成链烷烃煤油 (ATJ-SPK)。HEFA-SPK 和 FT 中使用的最大混合比-SPK技术为50%。因此,这些方法生产的燃料需求量很大。

    SAF正在应用于商业航空公司、军用飞机和通用航空机种。商业航空业巨头之一的美国联合航空于2016年在全球首次使用SAF,自此此后,该航空公司一直在各种型号上使用 SAF。2021 年,该航空公司与 Alder Fuels 签署协议,购买 15 亿升 SAF。此外,2016 年,美国海军对其波音 EA 进行了 MILSPEC 认证活动由Applied Research Associates, Inc. (ARA)提供的配备ReadiJet SAF的-18G电子攻击机。截至目前,已经对SAF在军用飞机模型上的使用进行了多项研究。例如,英国国防部已制定了其严格规定F-35、台风、野猫直升机等军用飞机型号必须使用50% SAF,通用航空领域仍然是一个小众市场,空客是通用航空行业中唯一引入SAF的飞机制造商之一。在其2021年的H225直升机上,H225直升机使用的Safran Makila 2发动机被引入SAF。此外,罗尔斯·罗伊斯公司于 2021 年完成了对用于公务航空飞机模型的由 SAF 驱动的 Pearl 700 发动机的运行测试。

    可持续航空燃油市场的其他一些最新发展如下:

    • 2021 年,联合航空运营其波音 737 MAX 8 喷气式飞机,其 100% SAF 从芝加哥奥黑尔机场飞往华盛顿机场里根国家机场,机上有 115 人。
    • 2021 年,西科斯基在其 S-92 直升机上执行了首次 100% SAF 飞行。
    • 2021 年,普惠公司与巴西航空工业公司合作进行了 100% 可持续航空燃油飞行演示。
    • 2021 年,空中客车公司、达索航空、ONERA、法国交通部和赛峰集团共同启动了首次对使用非混合 SAF 的单通道飞机进行飞行中的研究。燃料为由 Total Energies 在一台 CFM-Leap1A 发动机上提供。研究结果可能会在 2022 年公布。
    • 2021 年,西南航空和 IAG(英国航空所有者)同意购买约 3 亿加仑由 Velocys Bayou Fuels 使用木质生物质生产的 SAF。

    随着对SAF的需求持续大幅增长,可持续航空燃油市场的燃油生产商数量显着增加。SAF的一些领先制造商包括壳牌、BP、Total Energies 、Fulcrum BioEnergy、Alder Fuels、Neste、Zero Petroleum、埃克森美孚航空、Gevo、Velocys’ Bayou Fuels、Eni SpA、LanzaTech、Preem AB 和 Gazprom Neft 等。

     
Report Coverage
Report Coverage

Revenue forecast, Company Analysis, Industry landscape, Growth factors, and Trends

Segment Covered
Segment Covered

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to segments covered.

Regional Scope
Regional Scope

North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Middle East & Africa, South & Central America

Country Scope
Country Scope

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to country scope.

  1. Air BP
  2. GEVO
  3. ENI SpA
  4. NESTE
  5. SKYNRG
  6. Fulcrum Bioenergy
  7. Velocys Technologies Limited
  8. Total Energies
  9. Shell
  10. World Energy

The Insight Partners performs research in 4 major stages: Data Collection & Secondary Research, Primary Research, Data Analysis and Data Triangulation & Final Review.

  1. Data Collection and Secondary Research:

As a market research and consulting firm operating from a decade, we have published and advised several client across the globe. First step for any study will start with an assessment of currently available data and insights from existing reports. Further, historical and current market information is collected from Investor Presentations, Annual Reports, SEC Filings, etc., and other information related to company’s performance and market positioning are gathered from Paid Databases (Factiva, Hoovers, and Reuters) and various other publications available in public domain.

Several associations trade associates, technical forums, institutes, societies and organization are accessed to gain technical as well as market related insights through their publications such as research papers, blogs and press releases related to the studies are referred to get cues about the market. Further, white papers, journals, magazines, and other news articles published in last 3 years are scrutinized and analyzed to understand the current market trends.

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The primarily interview analysis comprise of data obtained from industry participants interview and answers to survey questions gathered by in-house primary team.

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Primary research involves email interactions and telephone interviews for each market, category, segment, and sub-segment across geographies. The participants who typically take part in such a process include, but are not limited to:

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Below is the breakup of our primary respondents by company, designation, and region:

Research Methodology

Once we receive the confirmation from primary research sources or primary respondents, we finalize the base year market estimation and forecast the data as per the macroeconomic and microeconomic factors assessed during data collection.

  1. Data Analysis:

Once data is validated through both secondary as well as primary respondents, we finalize the market estimations by hypothesis formulation and factor analysis at regional and country level.

  • Macro-Economic Factor Analysis:

We analyse macroeconomic indicators such the gross domestic product (GDP), increase in the demand for goods and services across industries, technological advancement, regional economic growth, governmental policies, the influence of COVID-19, PEST analysis, and other aspects. This analysis aids in setting benchmarks for various nations/regions and approximating market splits. Additionally, the general trend of the aforementioned components aid in determining the market's development possibilities.

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The “Table of Contents” is formulated by listing and analyzing more than 25 - 30 companies operating in the market ecosystem across geographies. However, we profile only 10 companies as a standard practice in our syndicate reports. These 10 companies comprise leading, emerging, and regional players. Nonetheless, our analysis is not restricted to the 10 listed companies, we also analyze other companies present in the market to develop a holistic view and understand the prevailing trends. The “Company Profiles” section in the report covers key facts, business description, products & services, financial information, SWOT analysis, and key developments. The financial information presented is extracted from the annual reports and official documents of the publicly listed companies. Upon collecting the information for the sections of respective companies, we verify them via various primary sources and then compile the data in respective company profiles. The company level information helps us in deriving the base number as well as in forecasting the market size.

  • Developing Base Number:

Aggregation of sales statistics (2020-2022) and macro-economic factor, and other secondary and primary research insights are utilized to arrive at base number and related market shares for 2022. The data gaps are identified in this step and relevant market data is analyzed, collected from paid primary interviews or databases. On finalizing the base year market size, forecasts are developed on the basis of macro-economic, industry and market growth factors and company level analysis.

  1. Data Triangulation and Final Review:

The market findings and base year market size calculations are validated from supply as well as demand side. Demand side validations are based on macro-economic factor analysis and benchmarks for respective regions and countries. In case of supply side validations, revenues of major companies are estimated (in case not available) based on industry benchmark, approximate number of employees, product portfolio, and primary interviews revenues are gathered. Further revenue from target product/service segment is assessed to avoid overshooting of market statistics. In case of heavy deviations between supply and demand side values, all thes steps are repeated to achieve synchronization.

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